What is +EV Betting?
(Reading this is not necessary if you do not want to understand the reason my betting strategy works - feel free to just follow the calls)
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(Reading this is not necessary if you do not want to understand the reason my betting strategy works - feel free to just follow the calls)
Last updated
Was this helpful?
+EV stands for (positive) expected value. This means that, for every bet you place, you are expected to make a profit averaged out over a long period of time.
+EV betting does not work unless you are willing to commit to it for an extended period of time
This is not a new strategy by any means. Using math to calculate profitable bets has been around for years, and has been a strategy proven to work
We will primarily focus on +EV fantasy sports since it is extremely easy to do
Prop: in this case, a prop is one singular bet on a player
Over: you are betting that the player will go over the line provided
Under: you are betting that the player will go under the line provided
Vig: If there is a 5% vig, that means the book is taking a house edge of 5% on its betting lines. The discrepancy between the two combined lines is the room for profit the book gives itself. We adjust for vig when calculating for a +EV bet.
The easiest way to make profitable bets is in fantasy sports. Take this prop, for example. The payout on a successful pick is fixed; this means you get paid the same regardless if you select the over or under. This is unique in the sports betting world and is a system that is exploitable. This system is how we will place profitable bets.
There are many different fantasy books. For now, we will look at PrizePicks, as it is one of the most popular fantasy books, and it will give us a good idea of how to implement the strategy.
On PrizePicks, "Flex Parlays" and "Power Parlays" are two types of bets you can place. A flex parlay offers more flexibility: you can win even if not all of your picks are correct. A power parlay requires all of your picks to be correct, but the payout is much larger. If any pick is incorrect, the entire power parlay loses.
If you want to bet profitably, focus on 5-flex and 6-flex parlays. These options pay the best and there is no reason to play anything else since they don’t pay as well.
There are 20+ sports books you can use to find live probabilities of any given line. The ones I typically look at are:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/ [SHARPEST, MOST ACCURATE LINES]
The goal is to find bets where either the over or under are favoured heavily on MANY sportsbooks.
What I look for: average odds for either the over/under on at least 5 books is -140 or better
There is software that can help automatically find and calculate profitable odds. I recommend you utilize these, as lines constantly change throughout the day and most of you won’t have time to sit at your computer refreshing sports books all day.
Keep in mind, most sportsbooks have a 5-8% vig on their lines. You need to account for this, which is why I typically only play props that are -140 or better even if -119 is the break-even point.
This strategy works because it assumes the sportsbooks are providing accurate lines. The lines that the sportsbooks provide account for information that is not publicly available. They have access to injury reports, pre-game lineup and coaching staff reports before the general public does. It is in the book’s best interest to keep its lines as sharp (accurate) as possible since accurate lines generate more money.
This strategy also works because each line is independent of one another. If 5+ books ALL have a given event favoured at -140 or better odds, then chances are, that prop is better than a prop that has one book priced at -160 and the rest priced at -110 since one book priced differently from others can be an indication of an error.
If a line is profitable, fantasy books lose money any time someone plays it. All fantasy books have staff working 24/7 that adjust their lines. This means speed is crucial, as a play can be bumped (adjusted) at any given moment.
